In a previous post on The Quad, Jack Styczynski analyzed the championship matchup between Kentucky and Kansas using statistics that show a strong correlation with success.
We examined the championship games or series of the N.F.L., N.B.A., N.H.L., and Major League Baseball, and the major finals in golf and tennis to identify our own championships characteristics in our book, "Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological and Mathematical Method." Based on this research, we focused on several championship characteristics that might help predict the winner of the N.C.A.A. men's basketball tournament. Last year's analysis correctly selected the semifinal winners as well as Connecticut to win the title.
With an eye towards key concepts of sport psychology, we looked at factors like big game experience, leadership behind the bench, leadership on the court, error control and consistency. So important are these concepts to winning championships that they have proven to be common themes across all sports we have studied.
Experience: Over the past 27 tournaments, 15 of 27 champions have had Final Four experience from the previous three years. Teams with more Final Four appearances in the past three years have gone 11-5 in championship games for a winning percentage of .688. This factor favors Kentucky over Kansas in the championship game. The Wildcats have reached the Final Four two years in a row.
Coaching: The coach with more victories in semifinals and finals games has compiled a 14-7 record in championship games for a winning percentage of .667. Coach Bill Self led Kansas to a championship in his only previous Final Four appearance in 2008, winning two Final Four games. Kentucky Coach John Calipari has reached the Final Four three times previously – with three different teams (Massachusetts, Memphis and Kentucky), compiling a 1-3 record in the Final Four before this year. Edge goes to Kansas, but Calipari's amount of experience is significant.
All-Americans: Over the past 27 years, teams with more first- or second-team All-Americans have won 65 percent of the time, for a 13-7 record in championship games. This year, both teams have one All-American on their team: Thomas Robinson for Kansas and Anthony Davis for Kentucky.
Consistency: Research has shown that consistency and error measures are also important to winning championships. Historical data was not as readily available for some of the statistics (data goes back 13 seasons), but the team with the higher 3-point shooting percentage has won 10 of the last 13 title games. Teams with the higher free throw percentage have gone 9-4 over the past 13 championship games.
In the table below, we list the performance of Kentucky and Kansas in the categories related to consistency like 3-point shooting and free-throw percentage. We also included turnovers and a defensive measure because these are also championship traits. Kentucky holds the advantage in most of these statistical measures.
| Statistic | Kentucky | Kansas |
| 3-point shooting percentage | 37.8% | 34.5% |
| 3-point shooting defense | 31.5% | 33.7% |
| Turnovers per game | 11.3 | 13.0 |
| Free-throw percentage | 72.7% | 69.1% |
Kentucky is considered the favorite in the game, and our analysis of championship characteristics supports that. Although Kansas has the edge in coaching leadership, more championship factors predict that Kentucky will defeat Kansas.
Carlton J. Chin, a portfolio strategist, and Jay P. Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of "Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method." They have previously written about the World Series, the N.B.A. finals, and the Super Bowl.
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