Purdy and Pollak are on the scene in St. Louis, so I won't and can't get into any cogent analysis while I'm here at home and now that the series is scheduled to start in 40 minutes or so.
I can type out a few things, however, including a series prediction at the end of this take…
* If you look at the history of the Stanley Cup playoffs, and the Sharks in particular, it really does boil down to a 2-game series for the team without home ice.
That would be the Sharks in this instance.
Teams that lose both Games 1 and 2 in any Stanley Cup playoff round go on to lose 86.4% of the series (according to the invaluable whowins.com).
That's a Steve Nash free-throw attempt right there. You do not want to be on the wrong side of those odds.
You don't clinch anything by stealing one of the first two games on the road to start a series, but you do tilt the odds back your way–at the very least, of taking the series to 6 or 7 games.
And if the road team happens to sweep the first two, historically, it wins the series 75.7% of the time.
So it's not about holding serve for St. Louis in these first two games, not really.
It's about the Blues hoping to get out to a 2-0 lead, which has proven historically to be a stranglehold from which few teams escape.
And it's about the Sharks' efforts to take it back to HP Pavilion at the worst tied 1-1.
If they go down 2-0, they're in deep trouble… the way they were in trouble against Vancouver last year after losing the first two and against Chicago in 2010 after losing the first two (at HP Pavilion).
* Game 1 is a major statistical landmark, all by itself: 76.1% of NHL road teams that have lost Game 1 have gone on to lose the series.
But if the visiting team wins Game 1, historically that team goes on to win 53.7% of the series.
Against St. Louis' grinding, defensive-minded style, I would also believe it's better for the Sharks to strike early, while the Blues are getting their nerves under control.
If the Blues settle down, get an early lead–in the game and in the series–I'd think things might swiftly start to look like the season series, when St. Louis dominated the Sharks.
My guess is that the Sharks are going to play much better in Games 1 and 2 than they did during the season series–Joe Thornton has picked it up, and that means everybody else has to pick it up.
Plus, Marty Havlat back in the line-up has proven to be a massive positive indicator for the Sharks.
I'll guess that Antti Niemi is solid and that St. Louis gets excellent defense and goal-tending throughout.
So I'll guess the Sharks lose tonight… but win Game 2 (in overtime, game-winner by Pavelski), to take it back to HP in a heads-up 1-1 situation.
And I'll predict that this will go deep. All the way to Game 7 in St. Louis.
Where I'll pick the Blues in 7, mostly because I think coach Ken Hitchcock will figure out how to win that last game on home ice.
The Sharks gave away home ice by some lousy play in the last few months. I think it'll come back to haunt them. But I could be wrong. You'll let me know if I am.
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