COMMENTARY | If you just spent $2 billion on a sports franchise, absolutely devastating the record for a price paid for a team in any sport, it would behoove you to move quickly to reinvigorate your acquisition. In sports, short of giving tickets away, the way you do that is by infusing your roster with talent that electrifies the fan base and ensures that the seats are filled every night and the brand is flying off the shelves. For Stan Kasten, Magic Johnson and the rest of the group whose shaky hands are about to write out some massive checks, there won't be much they can do for 2012 short of making some moves at the trading deadline if the Los Angeles Dodgers are in contention. Upon the next offseason, they can pounce, and the Philadelphia Phillies could become the biggest victim of their aggressive rebuild.
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Cole Hamels is arguably the best home grown Philadelphia Phillies pitcher since Chris Short in the '60s. They drafted him. They groomed him. He arrived on the scene all glitz and glamour. He showed some early signs of petulance. He earned the nickname " Hollywood." And then Jamie Moyer showed up to whisper sweet baseball dos and don'ts in Hamel's ear. In 2008, Hamels matured, and he led the team he was drafted by to their first World Series title in 28 years. He led the town that adopted him to their first major sports franchise title in 25 years—over 100 sports seasons of champion-less futility. He was the NLCS MVP over the same Dodgers who will covet him this offseason. He was the World Series MVP over the Tampa Bay Rays. He had a bit of a hangover season in 2009 but has since been one of baseball's most consistent left-handed guns.
Now, Hamels is the third deity in a trinity of Philadelphia pitching that the Phillies will be relying on more than ever before in the 2012 season. Along with perennial Cy Young candidates Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, Hamels and the Phillies' starting rotation now carries the dump truck load of weight it will take to bring them back to the Fall Classic. Halladay is under contract through 2013, with a vesting option for '14 if he hits 225 innings pitched the year before, or 415 innings pitched combined in 2012-'13. Lee is under contract through 2015 with a similar vesting option for 2016. Hamels, who just signed a one-year deal for $15 million, avoiding arbitration, will be a free agent at the end of the season.
So why would Hamels be the first and most important target for the Dodgers next offseason? Three reasons:
SHODDY LIST OF FREE AGENT STARTERS
Hamels and Milwaukee Brewer righty Zack Greinke headline an unimpressive list of starting pitching in next year's free agency. There are several names out there like Dan Haren, James Shields and Ervin Santana who have club options, but those will likely be picked up. Both Hamels and Greinke are still in their 20s and entering what should be the prime of their major league careers. Why Hamels over Greinke? Because he's played in Philadelphia and knows what pressure is about. Because no media will ever get to him anymore. Because Greinke never has. Because Greinke has had psychological problems in the past, and going to L.A. may be a little too much on the talented righty's psyche.
THE ALMIGHTY DOLLAR
You might wonder how the new Dodger ownership will have anything left to go get players after shelling out $2 billion clams. Enter their new TV deal. They'll likely sign one soon after taking over the franchise that will allow them to pay down much of the debt of the original acquisition and will leave them sitting flush with dough and eager to cash in on the momentum of new ownership.
The Phillies payroll entering 2012 is roughly $170 million. That's money committed to 20 players with guaranteed contracts. Remember, you carry 25 on a major league roster.
The Phillies success over the last five or six seasons has been astronomical when compared to franchise history. They'll be vying for their sixth straight NL East title. They've been to two World Series and three NLCS in the last five seasons. They're about to sell out every home game for the third straight season and then some. But there's an end to the money somewhere. The Phillies do not want to enter luxury tax territory and while their coffers are lined with cash, there are limits to what they'll do. Anyone who has a problem with that should hearken back to the days of Scott Rolen and Curt Schilling at the turn of the century when Philadelphia was begging for the Phillies to sign anyone. Now, free agents line up at the door.
In 2013, the Phillies already have $112.8 million locked in to just 8 players. That's an average of $14.1 million per player. They want to sign Hamels. They will make every effort to get it done, but if it gets to the offseason, it's going to be awfully hard to throw the money at him that the Dodgers undoubtedly will.
GOING BACK TO CALI
There is no loyalty in sports anymore. Having a player for his entire career is a rarity at best. Just ask Cleveland and that fella that left for Miami. Although the Phillies drafted Hamels and nurtured him into an All-Star pitcher with future free agent clout, he's no Philadelphian.
Hamels is a California kid. Born and raised in San Bernardo, CA, near San Diego, it might not be all too easy for him to turn down a chance to return to California to pitch alongside Clayton Kershaw for a king's ransom.
Hamels will more than likely command north of $20 million a season, and he will more than likely be offered five years or more at that number by the Dodgers if it gets to that point. The Phillies cringe at giving out pitching contracts that are longer than three years, but there is precedent that they will do it in Cliff Lee. With a lineup that seems to be aging worse than Joan Rivers, a farm system depleted by the trades that put this pitching rotation in place and a need to satisfy a ravenous fan base begging for another title before this era fades, the Phillies need to put the money on the table now.
After all that, it's up to Hamels. We'll find out sooner or later just where he considers home at this point in his life.
Pete Lieber is a freelance writer and has been dissecting Philadelphia Phillies baseball since he could read the back of Marty Bystrom's baseball card. Follow him on Twitter at @Lieber14.
SOURCE:
Baseballreference.com
yahoosports.com
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