COMMENTARY | While Justin Verlander may not duplicate his magical season from a year ago, he still has the ability to win at least 20 games in 2012.
Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander has established a reputation as one of MLB's most dominant pitchers.
2011
The Detroit Tigers' 6-foot-5, 216-pound ace right-handed pitcher captured the attention of Major League Baseball fans in 2011 en route to winning 24 games, along with the 2011 American League MVP and Cy Young honors. He was, and still is, considered the most dominant righty in the game—and that's for good reason.
Verlander has shown no signs of slowing down this year, which isn't great news for the opposition. Although the Tigers are still in spring training, Verlander appears to be in mid-season form, touting a 0.93 earned-run average and 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
That tends to be the case when a guy has four No. 1 pitches and can throw in the 100s well into the seventh, eight and ninth innings.
However, while he has earned the reputation as one of the most dangerous pitchers in all of baseball, Verlander has traditionally struggled in April. If he wants to get close to, or eclipse 20 wins, he'll have to find a way to get past early hurdles.
Last season, prior to leading the Tigers to the American League Championship Series against the Texas Rangers, Verlander went 2-3 in April. Winning just two of five wasn't necessarily the problem, but 60 percent of his losses on the year came in April (24-5 overall). Had he fared better early on, he could have potentially won 25 or 26 games.
He'll likely get 30 or so starts during the 162-game regular season, so early victories will surely come in handy—especially if he's on a pace to one-up last summer's 24-win campaign.
In 2010, Verlander posted an 18-9 record, but went 1-2 in April. Detroit wasn't as well-equipped in 2010 as it was in 2011, but a slow April certainly didn't help Verlander get off to a great start—even if it was just three games.
The same was true for Verlander—who won the 2005 AL Rookie of the Year Award—in 2009. He won just once in three starts. From 2009-11, Verlander owned a combined 4-7 record. Eleven games through a three-year span constitute a small sample size, sure. But look at what he's done after April during that same time frame.
Beyond April…
Verlander has been nothing short of effective after the opening month of the season during the past three years. As sure as the weather heats up in May, so does Verlander's arm, which has led him to a 12-2 mark from 2009-11.
And as the temperature continues to climb, so does Verlander's confidence. The past three Junes have been kind to Verlander, evidenced by his 12-2 record. He was 6-0 in June of last year and touted a remarkable 0.92 ERA.
Verlander owns the night…
Last season, night games were when Verlander was seemingly unstoppable. He went 16-4, but that was no fluke. Verlander has traditionally been great as the day winds down—just reference his 36-18 night record the past three years.
The Tigers are one of the popular picks to win the 2012 World Series. Again, it's only April, and what seems to be in true in March could be the furthest from reality come May or June. However, with Verlander on the mound, and with a little extra firepower courtesy of Prince Fielder, Detroit should be considered one of the AL's teams to beat.
The offense has quite the punch. And that punch will likely give Verlander, and other pitchers, more breathing room in the form of run support. But Verlander doesn't necessarily need more run support to make this season as special as last season; he just needs to do well in April—and pitch at night as much as possible.
Adam Biggers has followed the Detroit Tigers for over 20 years. His work has been featured in several Mid-Michigan newspapers, including The Flint Journal, Bay City Times and Saginaw News (MLive.com). He's also contributed to several web sites and magazines.
Adam can be found on Twitter @AdamBiggers81.
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